Varsity Insider

This year’s Fearless Free Press Football Forecast comes to an end with our picks in Friday’s paper, but it’s time for us to get a little more fearless with our predictions for the high school championship games.

Here are selected staffers’ predictions for the title games and their reasoning behind them:

(Check back later as more of our staffers chime in. …)

Division I

No. 1 Essex (10-0) vs. No. 3 Rutland (7-3)

Kevin Commo: Essex 33, Rutland 20. The Raiders have been there too many times not to make a game of it, but Max Librizzi and the rest of the Essex offense are too explosive to stop, especially on artificial turf.

Alex Abrami: Essex 33, Rutland 14. There’s just too much sting in the Hornets’ attack for the Raiders. Essex’s prolific offense will pull away in the second half, much like the teams’ regular-season meeting.

John A. Fantino: Essex 40, Rutland 10: Max Librizzi has another monster game as rapid-fire Hornets breeze to first title in 17 years.

Mike Donoghue: Essex 35, Rutland 19.  “Air” Librizzi and company are too much in the passing game for any defense.  Rutland coach Mike Norman always has his team prepared for a title game, but it won’t be enough this time.

Division II

No. 1  Colchester (10-0) vs. No. 3 Champlain Valley (9-1)

Kevin Commo: Colchester 19, CVU 7. In a matchup of hard-nosed teams, Colchester’s punishing ground game proves the difference.

Alex Abrami: Colchester 14, CVU 6. By Devon Grammo’s standards, his rushing line in last week’s semifinal win was below average. Grammo’s effort in the final will likely be the difference.

John A. Fantino: Colchester 21, CVU 6: Like it has done much of the season, Colchester jumps out to quick lead, squashing CVU’s hopes of another upset.

Mike Donoghue: Colchester 21, CVU 14. Should be a great game. CHS wants to go undefeated and CVU wants its first title.  Wet weather on grass could make a difference.  The Lakers, winless as freshmen, get it done.

Division III

No. 1  Windsor (8-2) vs. No. 3 Springfield (8-2)

Kevin Commo: Springfield 20, Windsor 18. Back-to-back wins over archrival Bellows Falls show surging Springfield is ready to defend its title.

Alex Abrami: Windsor 24, Springfield 21. Windsor makes up for 2007, 2008 title-game losses with a narrow win over rival Springfield.

John A. Fantino: Windsor 27, Springfield 24: Behind experience and a high-powered offense, the Yellow Jackets avenge last year’s title-game defeat, but by a much closer margin than their regular-season win over Springfield.

Mike Donoghue: Windsor 26, Springfield 14. Windsor has been a bride’s maid for two years, but get it done this time in the battle of Windsor County.  Gavin Callahan is too much for Cosmos.

Readers see our high school football predictions every week during the fall. Well, now that it’s championship weekend, it’s time for the Free Press staff to share some soccer predictions, too. Here are our title-game picks:

(Check back later as more of our staffers chime in. …)

Division I girls

No. 2 Champlain Valley (13-1-3) vs. No. 5 Burlington (9-2-6)

Kevin Commo: CVU 1, Burlington 0. The first goal is bound to decide this one and the Redhawks have more weapons.

John A. Fantino: Burlington 0, CVU 0. Seahorses win the title the same way they did a year ago — on PKs

Alex Abrami: CVU 1, BHS 0. The Seahorses have had the advantage over the Redhawks the last three seasons. However, CVU’s balanced effort is the difference.

Division I boys

No. 1  Champlain Valley (15-1) vs. No. 2 Burr and Burton (16-1)

Kevin Commo: CVU 2, Burr and Burton 0. Redhawks’ defense caps a perfect postseason with a seventh straight shutout.

John A. Fantino: CVU 3, Burr and Burton 1. BBA’s inaugural Division I tour comes to an end against a CVU program hungry for its seventh crown in eight years.

Alex Abrami: CVU 3, Burr and Burton 1. I picked CVU in my playoff predictions. If anything, the Redhawks have only strengthened their case with nearly flawless play, particularly in the semifinal win over BFA-St. Albans.

Division II girls

No. 2 Milton (14-3) vs. No. 4 Harwood (11-4-2)

Kevin Commo: Milton 1, Harwood 0. Championship experience provides the difference in matchup of Milton’s balanced offense and Harwood’s rugged defense.

John A. Fantino: Harwood 1, Milton 0. Highlanders’ 10th shutout of the season results in first title.

Alex Abrami: Milton 2, Harwood 0. Although Harwood knocked off top-seeded Montpelier, the defending champion Yellowjackets have that experience — and the talent — to repeat.

Division II boys

No. 1 Springfield (14-2) vs. No. 7 Missisquoi (10-6-1)

Kevin Commo: Springfield 2, Missisquoi 1, OT. Cosmos’ potent offense prevents Missisquoi from completing upset sweep of top three seeds.

John A. Fantino: Springfield 1, Missisquoi 0. Springfield cools off Thunderbirds with early goal and notches 11th shutout of season.

Alex Abrami: Springfield 3, Missisquoi 1. One of Springfield’s two losses? Division I finalist Burr and Burton. Yeah, I like the Cosmos.

Division III girls

No. 1 Mill River (17-0) vs. No. 3 Peoples (14-3)

Kevin Commo: Mill River 1, Peoples 1 (MR wins in PKs). It comes down to finishing skills as two battle-tested teams prove their mettle.

John A. Fantino: Peoples 2, Mill River 0. Veteran-laden roster + quick-strike offense = title defense.

Alex Abrami: Peoples 2, Mill River 1. An experienced Wolves squad is too much for Division III newbie Mill River.

Division III boys

No. 2 Stowe (12-2-2) vs. No. 4 Winooski (12-4)

Kevin Commo: Stowe 3, Winooski 2. Two years of finals experience serves the Raiders well in a tight game.

John A. Fantino: Winooski 3, Stowe 2: After overcoming three-goal deficit against No. 1 Lake Region, Spartans appear destined to claim first title.

Alex Abrami: Stowe 4, Winooski 2. Winooski has the feel-good story going for them. Stowe, however, owns this division and will show no sympathy.

Division IV girls

No. 1 Arlington (16-1) vs. No. 2 South Royalton (16-0-1)

Kevin Commo: Arlington 3, South Royalton 1. All those matchups with Division III opponents, both in this year’s regular season and past postseasons, give the Eagles an edge.

John A. Fantino: Arlington 3, South Royalton 2. When in doubt, go with the higher seed.

Alex Abrami: Arlington 2, South Royalton 1. I picked Arlington before the tournament started. No reason to jump now.

Division IV boys

No. 2 Sharon (17-0) vs. No. 4 Black River (13-3-1)

Kevin Commo: Sharon 2, Black River 1. The Phoenix cap perfect season by gaining revenge for last year’s finals defeat.

John A. Fantino: Sharon 1, Black River 0. Players on the only unbeaten, untied boys team in the state are smarting from last year’s title-game loss.

Alex Abrami: Black River 2, Sharon 1 (OT). Black River stays on top and beats Sharon again.

Mike Donoghue just about has this year’s Fearless Free Press Football Forecast in the bag. With just four weeks to go, he’s stretched his lead to an impressive nine game. His 15-3 record this week shared the top spot with Kevin Commo, marking the third week in a row Mike has been first or tied for first.

Meanwhile, the guest pickers continue to struggle. The 11-7 of USA Today’s Andy Gardiner was two games worse than any of the Free Press regulars and dropped the group of Free Press sports alumni three games behind Shawn Corrow in the race to avoid the basement.

The full Week 7 results:

Mike Donoghue 15-3
Kevin Commo 15-3
Ted Ryan 14-4
Alex Abrami 13-5
Shawn Corrow 13-5
John A. Fantino 13-5
Andy Gardiner (alumnus) 11-7

And the overall standings are:

Donoghue 98-22
Commo 89-31
Fantino 89-31
Abrami 86-34
Ryan 85-35
Corrow 84-36
Alumni 81-39

It was another big week for Mike Donoghue, who is starting to lap the field in the Fearless Free Press Football Forecast. Mike’s 15-3 record pushed his lead to seven games with five weeks left in the season.

It wasn’t such a good week for former sportswriter Sally Pollak, our guest picker. She went against the grain with a lot of her choices, and while she called upset wins for Milton and North Country, she got burned more often than not: to the tune of 9-9. That dropped the Free Press sports alumni to last in the standings.

Here are the Week 6 results:

Donoghue  15-3
John A. Fantino 14-4
Kevin Commo 13-5
Shawn Corrow 13-5
Alex Abrami 12-6
Ted Ryan 12-6
Pollak (Alumna) 9-9

That makes the overall standings:

Donoghue 83-19
Fantino 76-26
Commo 74-28
Abrami 73-29
Corrow 71-31
Ryan 71-31
Alumni 70-32

Mike Donoghue appears to be pulling away from the field in the Fearless Free Press Football Forecast. He was an impressive 17-2 in Week 5 to stretch his lead to six games.

A tough week for George Thabault, meanwhile, dealt a heavy blow guest pickers’ bid to win the title. Thabault’s 12-7 mark pushed the group of former Free Press sports staffers to seven games behind.

The full Week 5 standings:

Donoghue 17-2
Kevin Commo 15-4
John A. Fantino 15-4
Alex Abrami 13-6
Ted Ryan 13-6
Shawn Corrow 12-7
Thabault (alumnus) 12-7

The overall standings after five weeks:

Donoghue 68-16
Fantino 62-22
Abrami 61-23
Commo 61-23
Alumni 61-23
Ryan 59-25
Corrow 58-26

The guest pickers’ standings are:

Tom Brown 15-3 (83.3 percent) — Week 2
Hillary Read 14-4 (77.8) — Week 4
Matt Crawford 11-4 (73.3) — Week 1
Jeff Pinkham 9-5 (64.3) — Week 3
George Thabault 12-7 (63.1) — Week 5

As the fall regular season nears its end, one additional factor in this year’s soccer and field hockey championship races is a new rule changing the way index points are allocated.

The Vermont Prinipals’ Association has long determined playoff seeds with an index system that awards points for positive results (five points for a road win, four for a home win, three for a road tie, two for a home tie and none for a loss) and averages the per game total. Strength of schedule is factored in by adding a point to results against higher-division opponents and subtracting a point from the award for results against lower-division teams.

The new rule, designed to encourage matchups with nearby opponents to reduce travel costs, removes the one-point penalty for wins or ties against teams one division lower. And that could make the postseason significantly tougher on Chittenden County’s Division I teams.

(To see the current indices, check the VPA website.)

A prominent example of the rule’s impact is atop the Division I boys soccer standings, where Essex is tied for first with Burr and Burton. While both teams have just one loss, the Hornets (7-1) have played all their games against Division I opponents to just one D-I contest (a loss to Mount Anthony) for the Bulldogs (8-1). Under the old system, Burr and Burton would have seven fewer points and an index almost eight-tenths of a point lower.

The teams that might be most impacted by the rules change are the middle of the pack squads in Metro Division (such as Mount Mansfield in boys soccer and South Burlington in girls soccer) that play almost all of their games against Div. I opponents. They could be pushed down near the bottom of the pairings as schools from multi-division leagues are penalized less, making a surprise run like Burlington’s in boys soccer last year even more of a challenge.

The Vermont Interscholastic Football League uses its own seeding criteria and is not affected by the new rule.

Playoffs begin Oct. 20 in field hockey and Oct. 27 and 28 in soccer.

There’s no question the Max Librizzi-led Essex High School football offense has been prolific in the early going: 153 points scored in three wins is evidence enough for that. But to put the Hornets’ pass-happy attack in perspective, you need to look back six seasons.

In 2003, Zach Librizzi, Max’s older brother, was the quarterback as the Hornets advanced to the Division I title game. He made the Free Press’ first-team all-state squad and set the school game and season touchdown passing records — four and 14, respectively.

Just three games into this fall, Max Librizzi already has 16 touchdown passes and two six-TD games to his credit. And that’s with him seeing limited action in the second half of one-sided wins over Mount Mansfield and Mount St. Joseph.

Essex’s offensive approach has certainly changed over the years, but the numbers bode well for Max Librizzi and his teammates. Zach Librizzi left Essex with a 19-2 career record went on to have stellar career at Wesleyan University.

Considering she is a first-team all-state player, set her school career scoring record last year as a junior and is on pace to threaten the 100-goal plateau, it should come as no surprise Rice forward Brittany Pfaff is having a major impact on the Division I girls soccer scene. But that impact has come as much in the win-loss column as it has on the scoresheet, where the speedster has 11 goals in five games this year and 78 tallies in her career.

Rice is off to a 4-1 start, and Pfaff’s offense has been crucial to every victory. She had four-goal games in wins over Middlebury (5-2) and Mount Abraham (7-1), and she did all the scoring as the Green Knights beat last year’s D-I finalists, Essex (2-0) and Burlington (1-0).

The one time Pfaff was shutout? Rice lost to Champlain Valley 2-1.

By contrast, another all-stater, Burlington goalkeeper Stephanie Jaques, has given up just one goal (Pfaff’s on Thursday) in the Seahorses’ first four games, but that has translated into only one victory.

With the Seahorses having scored just one goal, Jaques and the rest of the BHS defense boast a goals-against average just over 0.2 — and a .500 winning percentage after a 1-1-2 start.

With the Patriots’ win Monday night, Week 2 results of the Fearless Free Press Football Forecast are complete, and in a week of solid showings all around, Shawn Corrow led the way with a 16-2 record. Our guest picker, former assistant sports editor Tom Brown, was 15-3 to keep the rotation of Free Press sports alumni tied for second overall, a game behind leader Mike Donoghue.

The Week 2 results:

Shawn Corrow 16-2
Mike Donoghue 15-3
John A. Fantino 15-3
Tom Brown (alumnus) 15-3
Kevin Commo 13-5
Alex Abrami 12-6
Ted Ryan 12-6

So after two weeks the overall standings are:

Donoghue 27-6
Corrow 26-7
Free Press alumni 26-7
Fantino 24-9
Abrami 23-10
Commo 22-11
Ryan 22-11

The games for Week 3 are listed below. Check back Friday to see our picks, and always feel free to share your thoughts on the games and our “expert” predictions.

Week 3 games:

Friday
Rice Memorial at Colchester
Otter Valley at U-32
BFA-St. Albans at Essex
Milton at North Country
Mount St. Joseph at Burlington

Saturday
St. Johnsbury at Spaulding
BFA-Fairfax at Champlain Valley
Bellows Falls at Mount Abraham
Middlebury vs. Mount Mansfield (at South Burlington)
Lyndon at Oxbow
Hartford at South Burlington
Norwich at Hartwick

Sunday
New England at N.Y. Jets
N.Y. Giants at Dallas

JERICHO — Mount Mansfield Union High School has adjusted the schedule for three games Saturday following the death of a local student.

A Mass of Christian Burial for Patrick Devlin, 16, of Bolton is scheduled for 1 p.m. today at St. Michael’s College. He died Wednesday after battling leukemia.

The Cougars’ football game against North Country, to be played at South Burlington High School, has been moved up to 9:30 Saturday morning and MMU’s boys soccer match at Harwood was moved up to 10 a.m.

An MMU field hockey game set for Saturday at Champlain Valley was postponed and is slated to be made up at 4 p.m. Monday.